Is the NHL dying?

I guess it depends on who you prefer to believe…

For instance….

Attendance: Trending up or down? – A hockey journalist’s blog:

I take my monthly look at NHL attendance over at Globe on Hockey today, something that shows just how well hockey’s being received in St. Louis these days.

The news isn’t quite so rosy in Columbus, Detroit, Florida, Carolina, Phoenix, Colorado, Tampa Bay, Nashville, Atlanta and Los Angeles.

Let’s just say I don’t think we set any records by season’s end.

NHL sets record attendance in November:

Yet…

The National Hockey League posted record attendance for the month of November, attracting 3,367,547 fans to 199 games for a per-game average of 16,922. The per-game figure eclipsed the previous November high of 16,818 set during the League’s successful re-launch season in 2005 and was 2.3% ahead of last season’s 16,538.

Season-to-date, the total NHL attendance of 6,603,908 and per-game average of 16,890 through 391 games are 1.9% ahead of the corresponding figures from the record-setting 2006-07 campaign.

Hmmm……

And a meme going out among some bloggers and hockey pundits is “it’s going back to the way it was”. Of course, the numbers don’t back that up (but then, the easy answer is to just claim the NHL is futzing the numbers. If you can’t prove them wrong, wave your hands a lot and yell loudly…):

globeandmail.com: Contrary to what Hockey Night preaches, scoring is up in NHL:

f you watch Hockey Night in Canada, you may assume there has been no increase in NHL goal scoring, despite the crackdown on restraining fouls.

And even if there has been a small improvement, you may believe it is attributable to the large number of power plays being called.

A big part of the Hockey Night message is: Zero tolerance has not helped improve the game offensively.

But the first assumption is wrong and the second is questionable.
Related Articles

Recent

* No clear winner in battle over the airwaves

The Globe and Mail

After all, goal scoring is up 10 per cent from 2003-04, which was the last season of the “old” NHL, when obstruction fouls weren’t being called.

The argument that a massive increase in the number of power plays – Ron MacLean of Hockey Night used the figure 18,000 last Saturday – has inflated goal-scoring statistics doesn’t ring true either, because even-strength goal scoring is up 9 per cent from 2003-04.

The number of power plays has certainly increased, starting in 2005-06 with zero tolerance. But it hasn’t gone up as much as you might think.

In 2003-04, referees called 8.9 power plays a game (defined as a one-man advantage). In 2005-06, when coaches, players and referees were grappling with the new rule enforcement, the number rose to 12.5. Since then, the number of power plays has decreased. Last season at this point, there was an average of 10.6 a game. This season, it’s 9.1, a small increase, 2.2 per cent, from the 8.9 in 2003-04.

Let’s look at power-play goals. In 2005-06, the total jumped to 857 at this point in the season, compared with 573 in 2003-04. But last season, the number dropped to 695. This season, it stands at 631 before last night’s games, an increase of 10 per cent from 2003-04.

It’s wrong, therefore, to assume more power-play goals are being scored because of a proportional increase in the number of power-play opportunities.

Power-play goal scoring is up 10 per cent, while the number of power-play opportunities has increased only 2.2 per cent.

It’s the elimination of the traditional forms of obstruction that is allowing teams to enjoy more success with the man advantage.

It is true, however, that even-strength goal scoring has decreased from last season. At this point in 2006-07, 1,537 goals had been scored. This season, the number was down to 1,453 before last night, a drop of 5.4 per cent.

But, as we’ve noted, even-strength goal scoring is still up considerably from 2003-04, and the guess is it won’t decrease much more, because of measures planned that include the further reduction of goaltenders’ equipment. As well, Buffalo Sabres managing partner Larry Quinn is proposing that an independent committee look into ways to rid the game of the neutral zone trap.

One obvious way to do that, in the long term, is to increase the width of the ice by seven or eight feet. That would give the team with the puck more room to get around the checkers.

But the important point is this: 118 more even-strength goals have been scored this season than in 2003-04. That’s progress.

And of course, the league is in financial trouble, just ask some of the pundits. Of course, the NHL just announced revenue is trending up, and that the salary cap is expected to go up again next year. This, of course, is used as proof by some that the league is in trouble because salaries keep going up.

Unfortunately, some of the loudest and most influential voices out there are the ones that seem determined to convince the public that the league is in trouble. Does the league have issues? Sure. Name any operation of any size that doesn’t? But if you compare the league to where it was before the lockout, it sure seems like all of the arrows are moving in the right direction to me.

more importantly? the hockey is a damn sight more watchable than it was before, and games are generally more interesting and exciting on a night to night basis. This, of course, is somehow bad for the league’s longevity….

You might also want to read:

1. Fixing the All-star game (well, not really) I can’t take credit for this idea, but I dig it and I’m going to tell you all about it anyway. I read this suggestion...
2. Obesity Cuts Risk of Dying After Heart Attack – Yahoo! News Obesity Cuts Risk of Dying After Heart Attack – Yahoo! News: “Once a heart attack has occurred and been optimally treated, obese patients switch to...