another quick thought on the sharks being down 0-3

Having this discussion with a buddy, and a bit more perspective on this:

If Pavelski doesn’t blow a tire in game 2, is this an entirely different series? If the called-back goal last night early wasn’t blown dead? we’re down 0-3, and it could easily be 3-0 if four or five pieces of “bad karma” turn the other way, or a couple of posts go in.

For all that it looks that the Sharks are done, the entire series turns on maybe four or five plays that didn’t go the Sharks way. A post here, a fast whistle, a lost edge. One or two of those go the other direction, this series is tied, or even Sharks up.

It’s not “sharks bad” here, but “dallas good”. There are two teams on the ice, and right now, Dallas is getting the breaks AND taking advantage of them. Good to them. And the Sharks aren’t playing badly, they’re being beaten by Dallas, currently playing better.

It’s kinda hard for me to get into the witchhunt that’s going to happen (starting with the canadian media that’s been hunting Ron Wilson and Patty Marleau all year beating the drums) when the real difference between the Sharks going to the final and the Sharks going to the tee seems to be a couple of posts, a fast whistle, a couple of penalty calls that maybe don’t go our way and Pavelski going down and giving the Stars a gift in game 2.

I know it’s not a popular opinion with some of the other fans, but I’m just not that frustrated, but I’ve always been tagged a suck up apologist… But then to me, there’s no dishonor in being beaten by a better team.

Remember, every year 29 teams suck, because they didn’t win the cup. Only one does. And this team is damn close to being a top 4 team, and is a top 8 team, even when not necessarily playing its best. The Sharks basically look really tired, Thornton and Grier and Roenick look gassed to me. And what was one of the worries coming out of the Calgary series? That the Flames took enough out of the Sharks that they couldn’t get past the next round. Guess what? It happened.

And in case you haven’t heard, the word is that Sean Avery went into cardiac arrest and stopped breathing after the game last night, and was rushed to the hospital where they found a lacerated spleen.

He’ll be okay, but think about this — if he’d bled out a little slower and gotten to his hotel room before passing out, he’d be dead this morning, and it’d be a much different discussion today. And that puts a different perspective on the importance of this “game”, or it should.

Update 1: new information is coming out that the cardiac arrest aspect was sensationalized reporting; Avery reportedly suffered the injury in the first period, played through the game, and was taken to the hospital after by the team doctor, where he walked in. Imagine if a blogger reported things that badly? But since this was the pro press, well, that’s different.

In any event, Avery’s going to be fine, but the underlying point is still valid: he’s lucky this was caught early, that’s a serious, potentially deadly injury, and to me, it puts the importance of the games in a different perspective, reminding me (again) just how seriously we ought to be taking this stuff sometimes.

Second round predictions..

First round done, and frankly, that was some great hockey. Only one four-game series, showing Ottawa to be the only team that really shouldn’t have been in the playoffs (and my sympathies to my sens-fan friends, it was sad seeing the entire franchise melt down this season).

six of eight series go six or seven games, and there’s been a lot of good, quality hockey. It’s so good people looking for things to complain about seem to be falling back on the reffing — and while the reffing isn’t perfect by any means, if that’s the worst you can find to complain about in the game, well, shut up and enjoy the ride.. (not that you will)

Game 7 in San Jose was a classic. The Sharks came out and just seemed ready — something they don’t always do. Calgary tried, but the Sharks simply didn’t let them get much traction. Even when the Flames went up 2-1, it was my feeling that the Sharks attitude was “no big deal, we’ll be there at the end”. and they were.

The Sharks are reminding me more and more of the Detroit Red Wings in their “machine” days, when it was obvious they knew they were going to win, almost daring you to beat them. The Sharks seem to be growing into that kind of mentality.

My feeling going into the Calgary series was that if the Sharks survived it and were healthy, it’d be hard for anyone to stop them. Coming out of the series, I feel that way even more. It certainly doesn’t get any easier in round 2 — but it’s not going to be harder. And the Sharks have toughened and gotten that confidence going again, so watch out.

Gotta give credit to a few folks: Kirprusoff had an awesome series, despite being pulled twice. the first time, it worked. Last night, it blew up in Keenan’s face, with joseph giving up a goal almost immediately and effectively putting the game out of reach. Keenan, of course, put the onus on Kiprusoff in the post-game interviews and not on his decision to put a cold goalie in against a team putting on a big rush. Sometimes the coach’s strategy works, sometimes it blows up, but that’s the goalie’s fault.

(and why did Keenan not show up in the handshake line? A bit classless, Mike. just like throwing Kiprusoff under the bus after the game. way to go, guy).

Also big kudos to Iginla, who worried me that he might beat the sharks singlehandedly, and sure tried. In game 7, everywhere he went, Joe Pavelski was there making sure the pass didn’t get through cleanly — and in the third, I’m not sure Iginla ever really left the ice. I haven’t seen formal numbers, but he had at least 12 minutes, I think, playing a forward shift with his line, then double-shifting at D with Phaneuf. Talk about a stud. (oh, and Phaneuf was the third stud. he’s a punk and a fairly dirty player, but he’s also very good and effective at it).

Finally, congrats to Owen Nolan, probably playing his last game (and also to ex-shark Wayne Primeau, who also made the Sharks moderately miserable in the series). Been fun to watch him all season playing well after most of us thought he was done years ago, and in this series, he was a force and scored a number of key goals.

But the big question in Calgary is how they’re going to make that team better; I don’t think Keenan is the answer (in today’s NHL, can he be?), and that team played its heart out, and it wasn’t good enough. Sutter has some tough decisions to make. First one I’d suggest is whether Keenan is who you want behind the bench. Sutter, bluntly, would have been in that handshake line, and that is to me a symptom of the bigger issues that Keenan carries with him; Scotty Bowman was never a “player’s coach”, but Keenan’s act wears out very quickly, and if his job was to take the Flames to the next level and get them deeper into the playoffs, it didn’t work. We’ll see. I know what my answer is, but then, my answer never involves hiring Keenan in the first place.

Anyway, a couple of days off, and back to the war. So what’s the 2nd round look like? And how’d I do in the first?

In the west, I was 3-1; picked san jose, detroit and colorado, missed Anaheim. In the east, I was also 3-1, picking Montreal, Pittsburgh, and the Rangers, missing Philadelphia. Not a bad start…. And both of my cup final picks are still live, even better (montreal/san jose)

So in Round 2

East: Montreal/Philly: I’ll take Montreal in 6. I like how they’re playing, and I think Price will outplay Biron. but it won’t be easy.

Penguins/Rangers: I think this one’s a tough one to call, but I’ll go Pittsburgh in 7. it can go either way, but I think the Pens will win this one.

West: Detroit/Colorado: in this case, I think the obvious answer is Detroit, but I’m not happy with the goaltending (neither is anyone in Detroit), and the Wings look vulnerable. And Jose Theodore has turned back into a goaltender. So I’ll take Colorado in 6.

San jose/Dallas: Nabokov? Or turco? San Jose? or Dallas? the teams have played very even this year, but the Sharks are on a run, and I don’t think Turco can play better goal than Kirprusoff did. 2nd round isn’t by any means easier for San Jose, but I don’t think it’s harder. Sharks in 5.

Drop the puck already!

(no, give us a couple of days for our ears to stop ringing…)

update: Mike Keenan skipping the post-series handshake is even more curious given this quote he gave just a few days ago:

To shake, or not to shake

Mike Keenan says never has he snubbed an opponent in a post-series handshake ceremony.

“No, but I’ve had other people mad at me who didn’t to shake my hand,” the Flames skipper said with a smile. “Pat Quinn (then coaching the Canucks) didn’t shake my hand when we won (the Stanley Cup) in New York. Other than that, everybody else has.”

The series-concluding ritual became a hot topic Friday when New Jersey netminder Martin Brodeur wouldn’t extend his hand to Rangers tormentor Sean Avery after New York dispatched the Devils.

“I think it’s part of the tradition of a hockey series,” said Keenan. “It’s the way it always has been, I don’t know why we would change it.”

(found in, among other places, the Ottawa Citizen)

Why the Sharks won game 7…

This will take a bit of explaining.

Over on the big island, Kilauea volcano has been erupting for years. Recently, though, activity has been picking up, and there are some indications it’s going to get even more interesting (maybe).

An old friend of ours and fellow Sharks fan was on the research team there in college, and still keeps in contact with the team there.

And we were chatting today, I made a comment about putting out the Flames, that perhaps Pele was mad at the Sharks; goddess of fire, she’s in conflict with the sea and its inhabitants.

So somewhere along the way, it was decided that placating Pele was a good idea, and emails were sent, and thus it was found someone at the University of Hilo who both played ice hockey and had a sense of humor, and a bit before the game started tonight, I heard that (well, unofficially, since throwing stuff into the volcano is against the rules) a puck was sent to Pele to encourage her to show favor to the Sharks tonight.

And now you know the rest of the story…

And I think I owe someone a case of beer….

Pacific-slope Flycatcher and friends…

While out running errands today, I took an hour or so off and ran up into Steven’s Creek park, just to get out for a bit… it’s been over a week since the sapsucker’s been seen, so it’s pretty clear it’s moved on, but I arrived just about the time today’s Big Day team was leaving, and ran into Bill and Mary scouting for their big day next weekend.

There was a small clump of birders on the road up to the campground that were scouring the oak canopies (including Al Eisner, Ron W). They reported Townsend’s and Black-chinned grey warbler, as well as a calling (probable but unseen) Cassin’s Vireo, an enthusiastic but hiding Black-headed grosbeak, and western tanagers. About that time, of course, the leaf blowers up the hill kicked in…. Also reported was a hairy woodpecker nest, in a snag along the entrance road from steven’s creek; look for the 15′ tall stump just after you turn in towards the picnic area.

The others wandered off to check out the woodpecker nest and get away from the leaf blowers. I stuck around because I wanted to practice searching the canopy and trees. After a bit the blowers quit and the birds started again, but instead of a black-chinned grey warbler, I found song sparrows and spotted towhees and American Robin (which means I still have some work to do before I I challenge Al’s abilities. Al, you can relax….)

The vireo kept calling and I kept at it, and about 30 minutes after Al left, a bird finally popped down onto a branch and gave me 15 seconds of good looks (and photo ops), and then popped out again. I never saw the warblers, but as I was leaving, I did get some quick but decent looks at a Western Tanager, too. I thought it was the Cassin’s, but when I showed the photos to some of the senior birders, it turns out to be a Pacific-slope Flycatcher, which looks a lot like a Cassin’s (smaller, different color beak). So it was hanging out as well, but not making any noise, waiting to trip me up. But we ended up getting it right…

On the way back, I stopped at the boat launch at the dam. Farirly quiet, but there were two Osprey hunting the lake, and two Caspian Terns fishing it, as well as a few D-C cormorants, one of which was wearing his breeding feathering over the eyes.

On the way out, I was going to check out the woodpecker nest, but another photographer was working on it, so I left that to later so I didn’t risk disturbing it. it’s easily visible from the road as you turn into parking area, so I expect we’ll see some nice photos coming soon….

Pacific-slope Flycatcher is a life (184), and Caspian Tern was a first of year (142)…. And thanks to Al for taking the time (again!) to do some teaching on songs and habitat and habits on the grosbeak and vireo…. I also had a female hooded oriole at the feeder here at home on Friday, and I realized I hadn’t added hooded oriole to my life list. It’s not new, but that makes it life bird 185 and year bird 143.

When I decided to start keeping a life list (I’m using eBird www.ebird.org), a question when to start. I finally decided to use as a cutoff my first birding trip to Morro Bay, since that was when I decided to take birding seriously (as opposed to be someone who takes photographs of birds); because of this, the lift list only goes back to May 2006, with two exceptions, both birds that I happened to have good photos of from before then.

I’ve currently set a couple of birding goals for the year; one is to reach 200 species (and with some luck, 200 for the year); the other, more of a longer-term goal, is to be the first to find and ID a rarity and have it confirmed, rather than follow the other birders and add known birds to the life list.

I’ve come close to that second goal a couple of times, but never gotten independent confirmation of the find. To me, that’s a goal that indicates how my ability to find and ID birds is progressing. OTOH, there’s still a huge amount of learning to do. My biggest problem to reach 200 species is going to be how much time I’ll have and how wide I can travel. With the new job and Laurie leaving Yahoo for MacAfee shortly, I’m probably not leaving the Bay area all that much, other than trips to LA to visit family…

——–

Location: Stevens Creek Park, Conley Picnic Area
Observation date: 4/19/08
Number of species: 9

Pacific-slope Flycatcher 1
Steller’s Jay X
American Crow X
American Robin X
Western Tanager 1
Spotted Towhee X
Song Sparrow X
Dark-eyed Junco X
Black-headed Grosbeak X

Location: Steven’s Creek
Observation date: 4/19/08
Number of species: 5

Double-crested Cormorant 3
Turkey Vulture X
Osprey 2
Caspian Tern 2
Song Sparrow X

Thornton, Sharks stun Flames in Game 4

Thornton, Sharks stun Flames in Game 4:

Joe Thornton scored the winning goal on a deflection with eight seconds remaining as the San Jose Sharks rallied for a 3-2 victory over the Calgary Flames in Game 4 of their Western Conference quarter-final series on Tuesday night.

You really didn’t think it was going to be that easy, did you?

Well, some of you did. And some of you have been alternately tossing yourselves off roofs or hyperventilating into paper bags.

Of course, it’s the pundit’s job to encourage this kind of over-hyper-analysis — whether it’s blogs, newspapers or CBC, they have time to fill, and so of course they want to fill it with Serious Stuff.

In reality, though, it still takes four games to win or lose a series. And that’s really the core of the San Jose/Calgary series: two really good, well-matched up, exceptionally well-coached teams in a seven game chess match. I got a number of emails from people after game 1 freaking, whe in reality, all that really mattered was a split in San Jose. And ditto game 3, when in fact until a team gets a third win or has a two win lead, it’s just part of the process.

And now it’s best of 3, with two games in San Jose. San Jose had the “first game at home” jitters in game one and while really outplaying the Flames after the first 7 minutes, still lost. The Flames did the same thing in game 3, first time at home in a couple of weeks — but found a way to get desperate enough to take the game back.

And now, four games later, we’ve decided nothing. San Jose “should” still win this series — but “should” and “will” are really different things. It’s very evenly matched. And the Sharks proved they could respond to the loss in game 3, and now Calgary has to do the same after having a lead (despite being more or less blown out of the building) late, only to lose with 8 seconds left. Major body and morale blow.

But both of these teams are proving to be master counter-punchers. Game 5 should be fun. Easy? nope. But fun.

Before the series, I said the Flames couldn’t beat San Jose, but Iginla and Kiprusoff could. That is really what’s going on. The series is tied because of three key factors:

1) Kiprusoff is playing exceptionally well, almost unbeatable.

2) the Flames forecheck is making the Sharks crazy and generating some nasty turnovers, and…

3) the sharks Defense (especially McLaren and Campbell) are struggling under that pressure, and so the sharks are losing pucks in situations that the Flames capitalize on for key goals, and fighting to get offensive pushes going. McLaren just doesn’t look healthy to me, and Campbell’s aggressiveness is being turned back at him by a well-coached Flames team.

Get away from the partisanship of being a Sharks fan or a Flames fan, and this is one hell of a great series full of great, gutty hockey.

A few other thoughts about the series:

any remaining doubters about Marleau, or about Marleau as captain, or about Marleau as a shark, can shut up now. marleau has emerged as a great captain, just not a noisy one. And for those of you don’t believe captains can be quiet, ask Joe Sakic or Steve Yzerman. And no, Patty’s not to either of those guy’s level yet, but he’s taking a huge step forward this series.

People who’ve been madly cheering Campbell should slow down and realize that a Dman that plays that aggressive is going to get burnt at times — and right now, he is. As Sandis Ozolinsh in his prime used to prove, a guy like that will generate lots of scoring chances; we just don’t know for which team. I’m not criticizing Campbell here — but the people who want to think you can have a player like that without the negatives his game style comes with. Personally, I’ll take my chances with him any time.

I still haven’t seen much out of Michalek. I saw more in game 4 than the previous three, but he’s still not holding his own. Cheechoo and Thornton really stepped up in game 4, especially late.

And so to game 5. And it’s too close to call — and I like it that way. (for now)

Zebras’ work flusters Flames

Zebras’ work flusters Flames:

“I’ll share those thoughts with the league and with the supervisor of officials,” said Keenan, whose side was saddled with six straight minors in a nine-minute span in the second period. “I’m not going to comment on it. I don’t have a comment on it . . . I’m biting my tongue here.”

Flames captain Jarome Iginla was more outspoken about the penalty disparity — but not by much.

“I haven’t seen that (a string of penalties) in a playoff game. It wasn’t even that vicious. Nah, it’s a tough one,” said Iginla. “We didn’t agree with a lot of things, and it wasn’t just the calls that were against us. It was also when Owen (Nolan) was on a breakaway (and getting hauled down) . . . that was real frustrating.”

Here is one of those great mysteries of being a hockey fan: that players and coaches somehow continue to believe that it doesn’t matter whether one team is taking penalties or not — that somehow the referees should keep the penalty calling “even”, even if the actual play isn’t.

In other words, if one team keeps taking more penalties because, say, they’re on the edge of being blown out fo the building and barely hanging on, the referees sill shouldn’t call “too many” penalties on them (i.e., let them get away with them!), and if they don’t stop calling them, or go find trivial things to call the other team on.

In other words, it’s the referee’s job to not call a game as it happens, but to somehow keep the game balanced by not “over” calling a team that’s taking penalties because it’s struggling.

Huh?

In any event, during that 2nd period disaster by the Flames, every penalty called on them was deserved. And a few weren’t called that could have made it even worse. The team was on the edge, it’s play shambles, and they were hanging on (literally, at times) for their very game-life. And if it wasn’t for Kiprusoff, it could have been a serious blowout.

And the Nolan pull-down? Rules are pretty clear here: if you’re going for the puck, and you contact the puck first, then it’s a legal play and not tripping. Unless, of course, you’re looking for the referees to “balance’ the game. Which, in fact, they tried to do in the third….

On the other hand, when a team starts blaming refs instead of looking at it’s own bad play, it’s starting down the path of finding excuses for losing — and in the playoffs, once a team gets that in their head, game over. Keenan is running a knife-edge here between playing the refs to get an advantage and putting it in his player’s heads they can’t win because the refs won’t let them, and if the players get that mind-set going, it’s over.

Of course, it could be over anyway. That save on Nolan with 5 minutes left, you could just see the Flames deflate. They were manhandled much of the game, blown out in the 2nd (except for Kiprusoff), and the few times they really got good shots, Nabokov stopped them cold. And then the Nolan shot, where Nabokov almost looked like he was beyond out of the play and somehow got it — that could be the place where the Flames start thinking they can’t beat this guy.

New role for a couple of refereeing vets

globeandmail.com: Globe on Hockey – Duhatschek: New role for a couple of refereeing vets:

It was reported fairly widely that both Shick and Mick McGeough, two of the NHL’s most experienced referees, were not working the playoffs this season. What wasn’t said was that Shick, who generally works deep into the post-season most years, volunteered to step aside this spring, so that a handful of younger officials could work the playoffs. He’s here, not as a series supervisor, but as a coach for those young refs, one of whom – Kelly Sutherland – was scheduled to work the Flames-Sharks’ opener alongside the veteran Don Koharski. Shick will retire after next season; McGeough, on the other hand, is done for good. For anyone who didn’t like his theatrical ways, they won’t have Mick to kick around anymore. McGeough retired at the end of the regular season; like Shick, he will act as a refereeing “coach” in these playoffs.

Well done by Rob Shick, and more power to him.

And frankly, I’ll miss McGeough. He was a pretty good ref for the most part. His weak point seemed to be a bit of a temper, a team could get under his skin and then you’d see ticky-tacky penalties doled out. Not saying he punished a team (I don’t think he did), more that a team that pissed him off stopped getting any slack cut. And it was a bit too easy to piss him off some nights. Well, many nights.

But one thing I’ll miss as the older refs retire — the new crop is generally decent and growing into the game, but the old refs all had personalities, and the new ones seem to be chosen to avoid that. It’s sometimes really hard to tell who’s reffing a game, where it was hard NOT to know who was reffing when it was Shick, or Fraser, or Stewart, or McGeough… And yes, I know some folks consider referees with a personality a problem in the game. I personally don’t. To a point.

2008 Playoff predictions.

Still not at the point where I’m hockey blogging reliably yet, but wanted to get this in (and once I free up some time and energy, I have some stuff I want to get written….)

So here’s my predictions for the 1st round and my picks for the cup final. One thing I can guarantee: gonna be some fun hockey in the playoffs.

Western Conference:

(1) Detroit vs (8) Nashville: seems like a no brainer, but Nashville’s had their number this year to some degree. However, Detroit has this ability to step it up in the playoffs, and it’ll be interesting to see how well they do that. Nashville is going to try, but I’ll take Detroit in 5.

(2) San Jose vs. (7) Calgary: I don’t think the Flames can beat the Sharks. I do worry that Kiprusoff and Iginla can. If they choose to take over the series, watch out. I don’t think it’ll happen. Only the Sharks can beat the Sharks, and this year, they don’t seem to be planning on it. Sharks in 5.

(3) Minnesota vs (6) Colorado: The western match that just doesn’t interest me much. I do think Colorado will take it, I don’t think either team gets out of the second round. Colorado in 6, but someone wake up the goal judges…

(4) Anaheim vs (5) Dallas: Here’s the series I’m rooting to be long, to be full of overtime, to go 7 games. anything to let these two teams beat the crap out of each other. I do think Anaheim will prevail. I don’t know if it’ll be four games or see, but I don’t see much in between. I think Dallas has a chance — I don’t think Dallas will succeed at taking it. Anaheim in 6.

coming out of the west: San Jose (well, duh)

Eastern Conference:

(1) Montreal vs. (8) Boston: to me, the only gimme in either conference. Maybe because Boston hasn’t been able to beat Montreal since Dryden was in goal? Montreal looks to have the easiest (note: not easy) path out of the first round here, perhaps a rested team will make later rounds easier for them. Montreal in 4.

Note: every time I turn around, I see someone else doing the “the last time a rookie….” thing and comparing Price to a young Patrick Roy. Talk about a load to lay onto a youngster ON TOP OF actually having to win in the playoffs. However, I haven’t seen much to indicate the kid isn’t able to handle the pressure, but whoof. Let him win a series before sending his number into the rafters, folks.

(2) Pittsburgh vs (7) Ottawa: My sens fans are gonna hate me for saying this, but Ottawa is little better than Boston here. Unlike Boston, I don’t think “happy to make the playoffs” will make losing in the first round better. Pittsburgh in 5, and Ottawa needs some serious help. and a #1 goalie that isn’t a walking braincramp (hint to emery: when you win, you’re eccentric. when you stop winning, you’re a cancer. any questions?)

(3) washington vs. (6) Philadelphia: oh, what a run. And may it continue. the Caps are fun to watch. I’m not sure how the Flyers are going to handle them, and I like Huet better as a goalie, proven or not. Capitals in 6, and here’s hoping they make life interesting and miserable for the east for a while…

(4) New Jersey vs. (5) NY Rangers: I hate betting against Martin Brodeur — but I will. I’m not hugely thrilled by the Rangers, either — both teams are flawed — but I think the reign of the Devils is over. Rangers in 5.

coming out of the east: Montreal.

the best April Fool’s joke I never did…

I used to take April Fool’s pretty seriously. but to do it well, it takes time, energy and the guts to take a risk. Which is why, again this year, Anil is right.

So this year, I thought I’d talk instead about the best April Fool’s joke I ever put together, one I never had the guts to pull off.

Very simple, really. Everyone in the building at Apple I worked in at the time would show up to a memo on their desk announcing Apple’s new Drug Testing Policy.

With a sample cup. And instructions on where to drop it off.

This one had the potential for chaos on so many levels. The obvious: a drug testing policy is so against the culture of a company like Apple, it’s an obvious riff. And frankly, a “here’s our new policy” memo or email just isn’t that interesting. But toss in the sample cup and submission info, and it’d suddenly feel a lot more real — at least initially.

then think about the different layers of this: people who don’t get it who get pissed (ahem) and start screaming about it until someone clues them in.

Then start thinking about the poor person at the wrong end of the submission address. And the interoffice mail folks. And… Because you know some folks WILL. And some folks will — but using innovative substances. And…

This one goes way back, when the subject of affection was Kevin Sullivan, for whom I had no real love lost for his work at Apple.

But the reason I never did it was because the peope who’d take the brunt of the bad aspects of the joke weren’t the people it was aimed at (Sullivan, Apple HR at the time, and whiny people who scream first and think maybe), but the AA’s who’d actually have to deal with all of the submissions. And that just didn’t seem funny to me. Now, Sullivan himself dealing with them? that’d have been worth being fired over…