iTunes Unlimited has a limited chance of happening for now » VentureBeat

iTunes Unlimited has a limited chance of happening for now » VentureBeat:

The rumor of Apple unveiling an “iTunes Unlimited” option for its popular digital music store always gets people in a tizzy. After all, who wouldn’t want to have access to large chunk of the service’s library of music anytime they wanted for a flat fee?

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Apparently, neither are the music executives whose music would be sold through such a plan, according to Silicon Alley Insider. Though it will only say it checked with a “variety” of executives at “major” music labels, the tech blog feels confident enough in those sources to write today that iTunes Unlimited isn’t happening.

Count me in the “very skeptical” group.

It’s a couple of years old now, but I was in a group discussing this with Eddy before I left Apple, and his view was pretty simple: he was more than willing to do a subscription service if the market wanted one, but he saw no real indication there was much interest. it was clear his enthusiasm was — at best — minimal.

If you look at the history of subscription music, it’s pretty sad. Lots of companies declaring they’re going to revolutionize the music market with subscriptions, almost as many companies quietly folding tents and going home later when the market doesn’t revolutionize. Nobody’s made money at this, nobody’s gotten a significant subscriber base, it is a solution in search of a problem.

What music subscription DOES have is a fairly small, noisy group of geeks living here in the online-web2.0-we-are-the-universe echo chamber beating the drum for what they want, on the assumption that’s what everyone wants. But if you actually look at the market in the real world, many have tried to solve this problem, some have succeeded with decent or good solutions, and none of them have actually found a market to make it sustainable, much less profitable.

Apple isn’t in the business of entering markets it can’t (a) make money in, (b) succeed in, and (c) hopefully dominate (see previous discussions of “why the hell doesn’t Apple buy Palm and do a decent PDA?” and “why the hell hasn’t taken on Tivo?” — and look at the profitability of both markets…). It’s had plenty of time, it’s had plenty of opportunity, and it’s declined to join the music subscription service.

Given nobody HAS found a way to make money here, and the tepid interest in such a service outside of the echo chamber, I can’t see Apple being any more enthusiastic about it than it was years ago.

So I think this is the echo chamber wishfully thinking. I’d be amazed if Apple did this.

(now, video’s a different reality: netflix has proven that. And I keep wishing/hoping that Apple goes in that direction with the itunes video stuff. On the other hand, the big issue there isn’t technological, it’s backlist/library, licensing and permissions. Netflix has a huge head start in that, and it’s hard to see Apple catching up easily. But if anyone can, Apple can. Will they?

I have no clue. but I can hope…)

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