No Steve. No Macworld. No problem.

Apple drops the bombshell yesterday. Some have questioned the timing, but I think they were at a point where they had to commit to floor space in Macworld 2010, and better they announce it and control the spin than have it leak from IDG and turn into a PR firefight.

I think it’s a good thing, and been coming over the horizon for a while. Trade shows are brutally expensive for a company like Apple, and the push to make a major push in product announcements just AFTER Apple’s core sales period ends is increasingly silly. Apple’s not just (primarily) a computer company any more, but a consumer product company. It’s definitely not a “Mac” company any more, it’s much more, so from a business standpoint, Apple benefits least of pretty much anyone involved @ Macworld. It doesn’t need the keynote to generate press, it can create a keynote on demand with the press now.

The folks that benefit most? All those Apple people who never got christmas week off because they were crunching for MacWorld.

Folks who benefit the least? well, IDG is screwed. But I don’t have huge sympathy there. But the small developers and smaller mac companies where Macworld was a chance to network and get some visibiliity are going to have to figure out something else. WWDC might be an option for some as an alternative, but this leaves a gap for them, especially for the “walk around and figure out who you need to get to know” aspect.

On the other hand, if Apple’s cost outlay for a Macworld is $2-3 million dollars (and when you factor in payroll costs and etc, bet on it), it gets increasingly hard to justify trade shows, even Macworld. So I’m not surprised.

There’s lots of coverage of this “event”, as you might expect. A lot of it boils down to “things are changing, I don’t like change!” which is weird in a way, given Apple’s success is primarily driven by being willing to drive innovation and make changes and not be tied too heavily to the status quo.

A lot of coverage is being aimed at Steve’s health. Without diving into that too deeply myself or trying to say “no, it’s not” as a blanket statement, I seriously doubt it. Steve may well want to back off and reduce his workload, but if the keynotes made sense for Apple, Steve would do them. Take this more as an indication of the belief his time is better spent elsewhere, which leads back to believing that trade shows are expensive, time consuming and increasingly limited in their impact in return. Steve’s situation is a trailing indicator, not a leading edge of the decision here.

Business Week’s Arik Hesseldahl has one of the more thoughtful (read: I agree) views of this beast:

Bailing On Macworld Is A Good Thing – BusinessWeek:

The first thing that’s coming to so many minds in the wake of today’s announcement from Apple that CEO Steve Jobs won’t be making his customary keynote address at the Macworld Expo on Jan. 6, is the condition of Jobs’ health.

I don’t think his health has anything to do with it. Though I think the speculation that has come to surround his appearance in recent years is a minor factor in the decision.

I also really thought Jason had some good thoughts on this at Macworld:

Apple at Expo: What went wrong? | Mac Word | Macworld:

Tuesday’s news that Apple had announced that Steve Jobs wouldn’t be appearing at Macworld Expo and that the company would stop exhibiting at the show after 2009 came as a shock. I’m stunned that Apple has taken a 25-year-old event that has been the single best meeting place for the entire community of users and vendors of Apple-related products and treated it like a piece of garbage stuck to the bottom of its shoe. But I’m not really surprised: Apple has been leading up to this moment for a long time now.

Also worth reading:

Rob Griffiths @ Macworld:

The end of an era for Macworld Expo | Editors’ Notes | Macworld:

For several years, trade shows—technology trade shows in particular—have been in serious decline. From Comdex to E3, large trade shows have been dying out or drastically changing their focus. Even Macworld Expo hasn’t been immune, as the east coast show was canceled after the 2005 event. (The Expo was moved from New York in 2004, and Apple declined to participate in the Boston show that year; the show lasted only one more year before being canceled.) The annual San Francisco Macworld Expo, however, seemed safe from the troubles. For nearly 20 years, the January event has been the one place to see and be seen in the world of all things Apple.

Michael Gartenberg (as usual):

Macworld’s demise is of little consequence to Apple – mediabistro.com: MobileDevicesToday:

It’s been floating around all day as a rumor but it seems that not only is Steve Jobs not keynoting Macworld, but this will be Apple’s last year at the show. Given that, it’s hard to see how the conference continues. It’s clearly the passing of an era but I don’t think this is that major in terms of news for Apple. Over the last several years, Apple has downplayed the importance of Macworld as an event (and stopped attending the east coast show some years ago before that event ceased to exist). Apple, unlike many other companies has the ability to draw audience of press and analysts as needed. In addition, the Apple retail experience is a good showcase for consumers who want to see Apple products up close.

As for Steve Jobs as a no-show? I’d expect this to be a pretty tame Macworld in terms of news. If you’re expecting a major announcement in January, you’re going to be disappointed.

although I’m guessing if this really is the start of a transition from “Apple as Steve-center-of-the-universe” there’s no better way to do that than not have steve give the keynote AND come out with something kicker. It seems that there’s this presumption that because Apple chose now to make this change ti doesn’t have much to talk about. Maybe, but I think they chose this time to make this decision for other reasons, and perhaps having a strong product announcement is actually part of the plan here. We’ll see.

My bottom line — everyone’s hypered up about this, because, well, that’s what we do about Apple stuff. but ultimately, this is a big non-issue, and once past it and looking back on it with some time, we’ll wonder why we made such a fuss. Well, no, we won’t. we’ll be too busy making a big fuss about the next major apple non-event event…

Update:

John Siracusa at Ars nails it:

Fearless: Apple’s Macworld Expo exit is part of its DNA:

There are many words that characterize Apple under the second reign of Steve Jobs: resurgent, exciting, innovative, successful. I’d add one more to that list: fearless.

Most large corporations are afraid of change. Successful product lines, business plans, and especially brands are milked for every penny. And when there’s nothing left, when the thing’s been beaten into the ground until not a single ounce of value remains, only then will corporations reluctantly move on. But wait! Sometimes they quickly moved back, either because they lost their nerve at the last minute, or because the new direction proved even worse than the exhausted husk of the old winner.

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