examining the 2009 collapse: what next?

I took a few days to get the raw emotion out of the system and to mull over my thoughts on the Sharks 2009 collapse.

The first question: is “collapse” appropriate? my thought: given the expectations and talent — yes.

But more correctly, I think, the Sharks simply didn’t recognize the need to “take it to 11″ in the playoffs. They played the first round the way they played rhe regular season. That would have been perfectly acceptable, except against two or three teams. One of those teams was the Ducks, and in the first round,   key Ducks twisted the intensity knob until it broke off, and the key Sharks didn’t.

Now? The Sharks are golfing, the Ducks are trying to do it again against the Wings.  my view is that the Sharks that lost to the Ducks had no chance to get through the Wings, either, so it’s just as well they lost in the first round, because if this team ahd made it to the western final and lost, many of us (myself included) would have downlplayed the problems and gone into “well, almost, try again next year” mode. To some degree losing to the Ducks could be a blessing in disguise, because now we can’t avoid looking at and fixing the problems.

And it may seem strange talking about the team that won the President’s Cup having problems, but it’s true — and they’re problems that tie back to the reality that the playoffs is a different style of hockey, and this team wasn’t prepared or willing (or perhaps able) to play it well.

But before I start ripping the team and its roster, let’s also remember that this team did a lot of really good things, and fought through a lot of injuries in the second half — and this team deserves a lot of praise and credit for what it did.

What it did, though, simply wasn’t enough. And this team, as the roster is currently structured, isn’t — to me — what is needed to take that next step. I can’t call this season a learning experient, I can’t in all honestly say “we’ll be better next year”. I don’t believe it. This team needs changes to step up.

Isn’t it interesting that this team won the President’s Trophy and yet nobody on the team is up for an NHL award — except Coach McClelland? Is that the east coast bias of the voters? Well, partially. But as good as this team was in the first half, it wasn’t nearly as good in the second, and honestly, not seeing anyone nominated for awards didn’t surprise me, and I can’t argue the results. The go-to guys weren’t in San jose, not enough to stand out and be awarded for it. There’s a partial answer to this problem, I think.

What things are NOT the problem?

Doug Wilson: Not the problem. he did a hell of a job putting together a team, a team that ultimately had a couple of players NOT step up to play to expectations at key times. Chemistry and character are the hardest aspects of building a roster; many times, you don’t know until after. His job is now to figure out what needs fixing and fix it. Wilson’s apology to fans and ownership for the failure, and the tone of his statements, makes me comfortable thinking he well understands and will dig in and find the solution

Coach McLellan and staff: Not the problem. McClellan fully desrves his Adams nomination, even if he won’t enjoy it (that, in itself, is a positive to me). Damien Cox came out and proclaimed that this meant that Ron Wilson wasn’t the problem. That’s not quite right. he wasn’t the ONLY problem. This team playing for Wilson wouldn’t have won the President’s Cup, and certainly wouldn’t have been a better team than the one we had this year; it would have likely been less successful. There are rarely SINGLE, SIMPLE problems to solve in situations like this, no matter how much a journalist wants to simplif it.

Nabokov: not the problem. he wasn’t as good as Hiller was, but  kept seeing defensive breakdowns and turnovers in front of him, and I’m not throwing this on Nabokov that he didn’t stop every mistake that happened in key places in front of him. (secondarily: if you decide to abandon ship on Nabokov, the chances the team will open the season with a BETTER goalie is — ’nuff said. Next.)

The Sharks defense: not the problem. Much as some people want to rag on Ehroff, and yes, he does make a mistake here and there, he’s playing 25 minutes a game agains tthe top lines, so mistakes are going to happen. He’s a go-to go. There are no real questions on the rest of the D, excet whether Blake will be back. I hope so.

Forwards? Well… Now we have a problem. I’ve heard people saying we need to get rid of Roenick, or Lemieux, or… The easy choices (if not necessarily right ones); the reality is, the third and fourth lines did fine. the problem is on the first two lines, which needed to step it up — and didn’t. You won’t fix the problem re-arranging the support/depth players. it’s time to shake up the core on that top six forward group.

I’ve been very impressed with Marleau this year; I can’t ask much more of him, especially given playing with a sprained knee MCL. he gets a pass (for one more year). Ditto Setoguchi, Clowe, and Pavelski.

That leaves — thornton and michalek. And I believe it’s time for both to get that “fresh start” we talk about when we want to be nice and not say things like “pack your bags, it’s over”.

it’s time for Joe Thornton to move on; he stepped his game up in game 5, but couldn’t sustain it into game 6. he’s shown a history of not stepping it up in the playoffs; he is what he is. Stars are made in the regular season, superstars show up in the playoffs. Joe Thornton is a star, and I don’t see how he can stay a Shark and lead the Sharks to the Cup final.

Michalek? Hasn’t impressed me; doens’t use his speed well in this system, doesn’t use his strength well. I think he needs that fresh start, and I want to see a different player in the mix.

I hereby announce that I’m starting the rumor of Thornton and Michalek (and toss in some other stuff, maybe, like draft picks) for Lecavallier.

So here’s my thoughts on roster for opening day:

goalies:

Nabokov
Boucher (UFA)

(I see nothing to indicate that Greiss is “it”. I’d bring back Boucher for now, and work to focus Worcester on developing one of the younger prospects. Greiss at the NHL level doesn’t give me a confort level if Nabby gets injured, and Boucher does)

defense:
Boyle Lukowich Murray Vlasic Ehrhoff Blake (UFA)
Change nothing. If Blake doesn’t come back, we need to fill that hole, but I hope they convince him to come back. Unclear how, or if, Huskins fits in. Since he didn’t play, I can’t really judge him.

forwards:

xxxx – Marleau – Setoguchi

Clowe – Pavelski – xxxx

Roenick (UFA) – Mitchell (RFA) – Cheechoo

McGinn – Moen (UFA) – Shelley

I don’t know who slots into thsoe two top-six empty spots, I only know that it shouldn’t be Thornton and Michalek. We should be able to get some nice replacements with those players. Roenick and Cheechoo could fill spots, perhaps, but I like both of them on the third line.

I hope roenick comes back. I want him to, he seems to want to. We need him still. Just don’t over-use him. I’d like to see Moen come back, I prefer him over Grier. If we don’t get him back, then we should make sure Grier returns.

black aces:

C Goc (RFA)

LW Plihal (RFA)

My interest in Goc is fading, but depending on hwo the roster changes shape up, he’s still useful. Plihal is up and coming, deserves a spot on this roster now.

D Huskins (UFA) or Semenov (UFA)

Semenov really impressed me this year, but still seems like a 7th D who can fill in, not a sixth. Huskins? I have no idea.

gone:

Lemieux (UFA)
Grier (UFA, unless Moen doesn’t re-sign)
G Greiss (or Worcester)

Lemieux was an interesting experiment. I’m amazed he made it back to the NHL, he helped show some of the other Sharks what it takes to commit to be an NHLer; but he was at best a black ace. Not Roenick, but — Ozolinsh. worth experiment. Experiment over.

Grier? I think he’s fading; I’d rather have Moen by a wide margin, I think Goc’s speed brings more to the team than Grier’s grit and intensity.

Greiss? hasn’t proven he’s an NHL goalie. time to look at one of the yonger prospects.

And the two key guys I would move as we re-shape this roster. I’m not kidding about leCavallier, either. Something like that. thornton needs to find a situation lke Brad Stuart did in Detroit: he’s proven to me he’s a very good tonto, but he’s not a Lone Ranger type.  Supporting cast, not leader. San jose needs a leader in that spot; he’s not it.

Michalek (4.3)
Thornton (7.2)

One other thought: it’s time to forget the Richard trophy and let Cheechoo be what he’s really good at. Ultimately, he’s got the hands of Brett Hull on the body of Jef Odgers — and he’s a really good 3rd liner who can help generate secondary scoring and fill in on the top lines when injuries hit. I wouldn’t make him a 1st or 2nd liner permanently.  stop complaining that he’s not netting 50, and start appreciating what he does do, which s grit and determination and ccreating some offense on what looks to be a pretty scary checking line.

My bottom line? good team, not quite a great team, president’s trophy notwithstanding. Plays too soft, too perimeter. Needs to be more like the Ducks. We need guys like Detroit has that goes to the net and makes goalies crazy.

We’re 1-2 players away from greatness. And we have some great players. But the players are great in ways that don’t make the team great, so it’s time to shuffle out a couple of players to mprove the team.  And that won’t happen if you only shuffle the depth players, so it’s time for more serious change and replacing players we’ve come to really like over the eyars. tough problems, tough choices, but time to amke them.

Useful references: Dave Pollak on Sharks contract status; PJ Swenson on man games lost to injury;

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