League Revenues, the Loonie and the Salary Cap

HockeyAnalysis.com » Blog Archive » League Revenues, the Loonie and the Salary Cap:

If my projections are accurate, so long as the league can increase revenues (not including currency factors) then the salary cap isn’t likely to be impacted negatively in any significant way and could increase by a couple million dollars if the Canadian dollar rebounds measurably (it has jumped a couple of cents today). But in a worst case scenario where the league cannot grow at the same pace as it has and the Canadian dollar remains where it is today the salary cap is likely to fall by up to a couple million dollars.

some interesting numbers looking at the impact of canadian dollar value on the cap. No idea how accurate they are, but at first reading, I think he’s done a good job on putting this together.

the one thing that I’d raise as an issue is that I think the phrase “as long as the league can increase revenues” is an issue. there’s softness in a number of markets (Columbus, Atlanta) and I’ve seen some comments by Bettman about softness in sponsorship, which I expect will likely accelerate somewhat. A flat revenue growth is more likely than continued growth, if you ask me (and honestly, there was a lot of growth to grab coming out of the lockout, and I was expecting growth to flatten, if not completely go flat, before the economic crisis hit. Now that it has, ratchet the numbers down further, folks).

I was betting the cap would only go up minimally next year; now, I’m not only betting flat, maybe down a bit, but I’m also wondering if the players are going to see money lost to the escrow.

So far, Bettman’s said that the economy hasn’t really impacted revenues. I believe him. What he isn’t saying is that something like 80% of the league revenues are locked in before the puck drops to open the season, so there’s not a lot of wiggle room (good OR bad), barring some major catastrophe like a team owner going broke.

But next year? We’ll have to wait and see — when sponsorships and other deals are renegtiated next year? We’re seeing companies walk to the sidelines in other areas of sponsorships. Will teams find the economic weakness leads to reduced ticket sales, or price reductions to manage reduced demand?

None of this is (a) bad, or (b) the CBA’s “fault”, or (c) bettman’s fault. It’s part of the economic reality of life. Are some teams in deep trouble if the cap flattens or goes down? Definitely. But that’s because some teams are lousy at planning and budgeting, not because the system is flawed. ANY system you put in place, some teams (hello, Toronto) will find ways to screw it up, while other teams never seem to run into those problems and find ways to prosper (hello, Detroit and San Jose). And then there are teams like Anaheim, which sometimes guess wrong and sometimes run into surprises, but figure out a way to make it happen.

Hey, if you ask me, any team that insists on spending to the cap, committing too much salary for too many years and is depending on the cap continuing to go up gets exactly what it deserves. Don’t “fix” the system, get better management.

The good teams seem to be able to navigate this pretty well, even though we’re still in the learning curve for the CPA and the cap.

Posted in Sports - Hockey

A Compromise On Hits To the Head

Mike Chen does a good job of looking at the problem of hits to the head.

To some degree, I agree with him: hits to the head need to be penalized. But the devil is in the details…

KuklasKorner : Mike Chen’s Hockey Blog : A Compromise On Hits To the Head:

I don’t think anyone wants to see what happened to Brandon Sutter, and I’m constantly surprised at the fact that every time this happens, the NHLPA does nothing—you’d think the safety of their players would truly be their primary concern.

Under Kelly, the PA’s attitude has been changing; note, for instance, that Kelly is now in favor of mandating visors with a grandfather law for veterans. Of course, increasingly, this is a moot point. Stop and count the number of current Sharks that do NOT wear visors. I was thinking about that the other night, and it’s a surprisingly small number.

I think the fact that the league and PA aren’t moving faster on this is simple: it’s a difficult issue that is tightly wound to the core of the game. How do you take it out of the game without screwing up the game in other ways?

I’ve often been in favor of penalizing hits to the head—it’s not exactly a new concept in hockey, after all, and the stuff that can happen later in life due to concussions is downright frightening. However, the execution of such a rule in the NHL is the subject of endless debate.

There’s a valid argument about the position Sutter was in when Doug Weight ran him over. With that in mind, here’s an attempt at a compromise rule:

-Any shoulder impact on a player’s head is a two-minute penalty

-Any elbow impact on a player’s head is a four-minute penalty (two minutes for elbowing, two minutes for hit to the head)

-Similar to the “Was it a distinct kicking motion?” rule, a judgment-call exception can be made by the referee when a player is in such a position that his head is lower than the top of his shoulders. Basically, don’t hunch over with your head down—got it?

It’s not exactly black-and-white but it’s pretty darn close. It also requires a little bit of split-second judgment by the refs, which is never an easy thing. However, if this is executed properly, I think it’s a reasonable way to try and integrate a preventative into the game while not catering to stupidity. In other words, if you’re hunched over admiring your nifty stickhandling work, you’re still fair game.

The precedent here is the high stick. It’s a “no tolerance no excuse” rule, and players have (mostly) adapted.

The sticking point for me is the boarding or hitting from behind penalty. Players have figured out they can draw penalties by turning away from a hit — once a player commits to the check, they can find themselves with no options. It’s really a form of a dive, if you ask me, but it’s that same kind of split-second-judgement we’d now be asking referees to make.

And it’s got some of the same implications. A player that misjudges the hit into the boards can find himself seriously injured or spitting teeth onto the ice (hmm. did I just imply that’s not a serious injury? guess so; in hockey). Players are willing to put themselves at risk to draw the penalty here — to me, that says some will do the same with hits to the head, just to get the penalty. And that’s bad on a number of levels.

On balance, though, I like this approach. I’m a lot LESS worried about shoulder hits; we need to encourage that in the game, it’s the elbows, forearms and fists I want to see dropped from the game.

So how about this? Basically, extend high sticking to the elbow. Any touch to the body above the shoulder from the elbow to the blade of the stick is at least 2 minutes. 2 for incidental contact, four for significant contact, five for intent to injure.

I’d leave the shoulder out of it for now. Clamp down on elbows and forearms, and see how it goes. If shoulder hits continue to be problems, we can look at revising the rules. To me, though, I worry about heading too close to “hockey is a physical game, as long as nobody gets hurt”. you can’t do both; injuries WILL occur, and we have to be willing to accept that. Trying to stop every possible injury removes the physical aspect from the game. What we need to do is find that balancing point that allows for the great phyiscal play while discouraging the play that leads to dangerous situations and avoidable injuries. And I’d rather take two smaller steps and evaluate the change than one big step and realize we’ve gone too far, because it’s hard to take it back out of the rules once it’s there.

Posted in Sports - Hockey

A Group Is Its Own Worst Enemy

Clay Shirky is at it again. Go read the whole thing, it’s awesome.

Shirky: A Group Is Its Own Worst Enemy:

n the Seventies — this is a pattern that’s shown up on the network over and over again — in the Seventies, a BBS called Communitree launched, one of the very early dial-up BBSes. This was launched when people didn’t own computers, institutions owned computers.

Communitree was founded on the principles of open access and free dialogue. “Communitree” — the name just says “California in the Seventies.” And the notion was, effectively, throw off structure and new and beautiful patterns will arise.

And, indeed, as anyone who has put discussion software into groups that were previously disconnected has seen, that does happen. Incredible things happen. The early days of Echo, the early days of usenet, the early days of Lucasfilms Habitat, over and over again, you see all this incredible upwelling of people who suddenly are connected in ways they weren’t before.

And then, as time sets in, difficulties emerge. In this case, one of the difficulties was occasioned by the fact that one of the institutions that got hold of some modems was a high school. And who, in 1978, was hanging out in the room with the computer and the modems in it, but the boys of that high school. And the boys weren’t terribly interested in sophisticated adult conversation. They were interested in fart jokes. They were interested in salacious talk. They were interested in running amok and posting four-letter words and nyah-nyah-nyah, all over the bulletin board.

And the adults who had set up Communitree were horrified, and overrun by these students. The place that was founded on open access had too much open access, too much openness. They couldn’t defend themselves against their own users. The place that was founded on free speech had too much freedom. They had no way of saying “No, that’s not the kind of free speech we meant.”

But that was a requirement. In order to defend themselves against being overrun, that was something that they needed to have that they didn’t have, and as a result, they simply shut the site down.

Now you could ask whether or not the founders’ inability to defend themselves from this onslaught, from being overrun, was a technical or a social problem. Did the software not allow the problem to be solved? Or was it the social configuration of the group that founded it, where they simply couldn’t stomach the idea of adding censorship to protect their system. But in a way, it doesn’t matter, because technical and social issues are deeply intertwined. There’s no way to completely separate them.

What matters is, a group designed this and then was unable, in the context they’d set up, partly a technical and partly a social context, to save it from this attack from within. And attack from within is what matters. Communitree wasn’t shut down by people trying to crash or syn-flood the server. It was shut down by people logging in and posting, which is what the system was designed to allow


This is a classic pattern that we re-invent on the internet time and time again:

First, we think of whatever we build as something new and revolutionary (which it may well be), and therefore we can ignore past history because it’s not relevant to what we’re doing (which is invariably wrong).

Second, we start using it with a small set of people who generally have a common set of goals and ambitions, so “can’t we all just get along” works. For a while.

Then, if the technology is useful and proves out, the user base expands. the more it expands, the more it gets used by people who’s goals and ambitions are different from the original core group, and the conflicts of “what’s appropriate” starts. How well a system scales is more dependent on how well it allows for these divergent uses than how well the technology can handle the load. the more these conflicts stand in the faces of the users, the more likely the system will fall over and die.

This is really the ultimate failing of mailing lists, because the only way to scale mailing lists across these conflicts of “what this list is about” is to create more mailing lists for each diverging sub-population, and once you split the group up enough ways into enough shards, it loses all context among shards and it’s no longer a community (if it ever way). the only way a mailing list scales and survives is to get seriously anal about focussing content on the tightest definition of “acceptable” for the community and limiting side chat, which is a serious limiter of building community among the users.

At some point, the freakers and trolls move in, because there’s a section of society that gets off on destroy stuff other people build. If you don’t plan for this, when they move in, you die.

And yet, with decades of repeating these mistakes under our belts, we keep re-inventing systems that don’t deal with these problems up front. USENET’s lack of any authority system. non-verified SMTP. Wiki’s without authentication. Anonymous blog comments. non-validated trackbacks. The list goes on. We end up wasting huge numbers of resources trying to backpatch solutions instead of designing them in up front.

And we probably will continue to. sigh.

To me, it ends up to a few simple rules:

Anonymity bad. The net mixes these things up pretty badly. Anonymity implies there’s no way to know who you are, so there’s no way to police or manage your actions. Reality: for every person with a legitimate need for Anonymity, there’s 99 hackers, trolls and freakers taking advantage of the system to frack things up.

Pseudonymity good. No Anonymity doesn’t imply full disclosure. It’s not about knowing who you are, it’s about being able to know that YOU ARE YOU, so that if what you do is unacceptable, it can be policed. And yes, it means that some people (site admins) need to have some identifying info about you, but it can be implied identification, maybe as little as an email address or an IP address. Enough to give them a handle to enforce rules, although obviously, a really motivated troll will make any admin grumpy in any online system, if they want to. Fortunately, those types are fairly rare.

Always authenticate. Every village needs walls and gates, because if you don’t have them, when the vikings arrive up the river, they WILL burn the village. Even with walls and gates, they may still burn the village, but if you don’t do the basics, you dn’t have a chance. And they will arrive, someday. In my experience, usually at 2AM when you’re on deadline before vacation…

You need authority. Anarchy is a nice theory, but if you don’t set rules, when people push beyond what’s acceptable for the group, you have problems putting the genie back in the bottle. The middle of a crisis is a lousy time to try to build consensus on where to draw the lines.

You need police. Even if they spend 99.9% of the time in the donut shop drinking coffee (and in a good community, they will, because it self-polices well) that over .1% of the time, they can mean the difference between losing the community over a conflict.

But beware of self-appointed police. There will be people who will want to define things in terms of what they want instead of what the community at large wants, and will enforce their personal rules on the community if you let them. Don’t let them.

Enable the quiet voices. Most of the material created within a community is from a very small percentage of the user base. Look for ways to find those “quiet voices” that get crowded out of the mosh pit and enable them to contribute. It’s well worth it. Not everyone wants to be part of the loud and noisy group that loves the fight to be heard — and many times, those quieter voices will be your most interesting contributors, if you get them involved.

Beware the squeaky wheel. Just because there are some folks loudly complaining about something doesn’t mean they speak for the community in general. It’s key to understand these complaints in the larger context of the entire group. For me, a classic example of this is “reply-to” on mail lists. If you didn’t set it, there were always a couple of people loudly whining that it was the One True Way of setting up mailing lists, and they hated taking no for an answer. In reality, every time I did a survey of the ENTIRE mailing list population, I found — invariably — that the vast majority (80% or so) simply didn’t care either way, and of the ones that did, the “pro reply-to” group was the minority. I did this survey maybe a dozen times over the years, and got the same result on every list despite wildly divergent populations (from geek to sports fan to skiffy fan). the pro reply-to people hated this, because, of course, they knew better than the entire list population what was good for them….

I always saw the communities I built as community bars where people of similar interests congregate, in fact, I liked to promote the mailing lists not as “a place to talk about the San Jose Sharks” as much as “A place for Sharks fans to talk about stuff”. you’d never walk into a sports bar and get told to shut up if you tried to talk about something other than sports, for instance, but online, that’s fairly common — but in the side chatter is where the friendships and community building happen.

As an admin, don’t be afraid to let a group self-police. Probably the hardest lesson I ever learned. But having said that, the key to being a successful admin is knowing when to step in, and doing so decisively when necessary. Lots of admins (and the most active members of the mosh pits of the community) like to think they can just let the group figure it out; the reality there is that the loud and noisy and the trolls and freakers will drive out everyone else, and then all you have left are noisy freakers and trolls.

If you don’t police it, you’ll end up with that friendly community sports bar being turned into a biker bar by the bikers — at which time the people you built the thing for will all run off and find some other place to watch sports and chatter. Is that really what you wanted to run? a biker bar? Maybe, but not me.

Of course, the bikers always hated that… funny, that.

Posted in Community Management

eastern conference predictions

A couple of days late to the game here, but I hadn’t done as much study of the east in pre-season, so I needed to get that done first…

Division winners:

Pittsburgh Penguins (1) (but the atlantic’s the tough conference in the east)

Montreal Canadiens (2) — I really like this team this year.

Washington Capitals (3) — I really, really like this team this year.

playoff locks:

Philadelphia Flyers(4) — good, solid team in a tough division

New Jersey Devils (5) — will be a playoff lock for me until Brodeur proves me wrong.

on the bubble:
New York Rangers (6) — on the bubble because four teams out of the atlantic is going to be tough.

Buffalo Sabres (7) — I like a lot of things about this team, but it’s not really proven itself yet

Boston Bruins(8) — my bet for “I underestimated how good they were” for this season.

Carolina Hurricanes(9) — my bet for “could make the playoffs by beating up on a weak division”

Ottawa Senators(10) — have they put last season behind them? do they have real goaltending? I’m not convinced.

Florida Panthers (11) — best team attribute: finding a way to not make the playoffs. Not convinced anything’s changed.

playoff misses:

Tampa Bay Lightning (12) — new lightning management and coach: circus or genius? I’m betting circus.

Toronto Maple Leafs (13) — when you get down to it, a pretty sucky team. Best wishes to Ron Wilson, he’ll need them.

Atlanta Thrashers (14) — not going anywhere this year.

New York Islanders (14) — if they go anywhere this year, it’ll be in reverse.

my choice out of the west, Montreal or Pittsburgh. I’ll take Montreal. Both teams ought to keep an eye over their shoulder for the capitals, though. The east should be fun to watch this year.

My choice for Stanley Cup champ — San Jose over Montreal.

Posted in Sports - Hockey

western conference predictions

well, it’s prediction time, because, well, if I guess right, I can be loud and “cherry-esque” about how good I am, and if I’m wrong, we can hope everyone quietly forgets I said anything…

The western conference is going to be a real mosh pit this season, lots of interesting hockey, and there are going to be some good teams missing the playoffs. A three or four game losing streak could mean the difference for some teams, or a key injury. Almost scary, if you’re a contender. There’s no margin of error here.

So here are my thoughts on the west:

Conference winners:

Pacific: Sharks(1) — the change in coach will (had better) put this team over the top. If not, what do we do, blow it up and start over? Maybe.

Central: Detroit(2) — and I AM including a “cup hangover here”, or they’d be my #1 seed.

Northwest: Calgary(3) — I’m not sure why, but I don’t particularly like the Northwest, and Calgary seems the best of a fairly weak lot.

playoff locks:

Dallas(4) — last year, I expected them to fade. this year, I expect them to make the conference team’s lives miserable.

Anaheim(5) — window has closed, fading fast. Still dangerous, but not a division-champ caliber team, and probably a 2nd round in the playoffs at best.

On the Bubble:
8 teams playing for three playoff places. Not good — for five of them.

Minnesota (6) — probably over-rating them, and my candidate for “most likely to slip down the ratings”, but Jaques LeMaire knows how to minimize the damage and keep a team in the hunt. even if it bores you to sleep watching.

Edmonton (7) — maybe over-rating them, but something about them encourages me. The 2nd most likely team to slip out of the playoffs.

Nashville (8) — should be higher than 8th, but this is a tough division and tough conference

Chicago (9) — probably deserves to make the playoffs. Probably won’t, unless a team or two falters

Columbus (10) — probably deserves to make the playoffs. Probably won’t, unless a team or two falters.

Colorado (11) — will do what I expected Dallas to do last year. Time to blow up and rebuild. But could over-perform, and if other teams slip, could sneak up the standings.

Vancouver (12) — after luongo, well, what? Could go as high as 9th.

Playoff Misses:

Phoenix (13) — better. good? maybe. Playoff good? not in the west.

St. Louis (14) — ouch. another year or two.

Los Angeles (15) — seriously ouch. it’ll be a year or two before this team is a year or two out. maybe.

my choice out of the west: it’s a coin flip between san jose and detroit. I’ll take heads. (san jose)

Posted in Sports - Hockey